Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
