Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
